European Referendum Bill 2015-16
The European Referendum Bill was introduced into Parliament on 28 May 2015. It has already concluded its passage through the House of Commons. The second reading of the bill in the House of Lords took place on 13 October 2015. The second reading of the European Referendum Bill took place in the House of Lords on 13 October. The issue of extending the franchise to 16 and 17 years olds was raised repeatedly. The Committee stage of the bill takes place on 28 October 2015.
The European Union Referendum Bill would require a referendum to be held by the end of the 2017, but autumn 2016 and spring 2017 are seen as the most likely times for a referendum – with an earlier date made more likely by any early ‘wins’ in negotiations.
Following advice from the UK Electoral Commission, the question is likely to be: ‘Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?’
Negotiations
Amongst the many articles that have been written about the European referendum the top issues and concerns that continue to appear include: jobs, the economy, immigration, membership cost, trade, influence, British citizens living abroad and EU citizens living in Britain, taxes and how the UK legal system would function.
The Prime Minister has not given full details of his negotiations but has provided a broad overview of the government’s priorities, these are:
• Allowing Britain to opt-out from the EU ambition to forge an "ever closer union" of the peoples of Europe
• Restricting access to in-work and out-of-work benefits to EU migrants
• Giving greater powers to national parliaments to block EU legislation
• Supporting the continued enlargement of the EU to new members but with new mechanisms in place to "prevent vast migrations across the Continent"
• Freeing business from red tape and "excessive interference" from Brussels and providing access to new markets through "turbo charging" free trade deals with America and Asia
• Protection for the City of London financial markets from EU legislation
• Creating safeguards to ensure changes in the single market cannot be im-posed on non-Eurozone members by the Eurozone.
Current polling
Recent polls of public opinion on EU membership had shown a considerable, but not overwhelming, lead for ‘in’ over ‘out’. However, two polls issued in mid-September by separate polling companies showed the two sides very close. It is not yet possible to conclude if this represents a change in trend or two ‘rogue’ polls.
Existing polling of Conservative MPs show slightly more leaning ‘out’ than ‘in’, but with many more remaining undecided – with similar proportions in the Cabinet. There is continuing debate as to whether Cabinet ministers will be permitted to campaign to exit the EU.
To view the full briefing please open the PDF below.